> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.kickchain.fun/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# How Kickchain Predictions Work: Pick, Lock In, Collect

> Make permanent on-chain picks for World Cup matches, lock in your odds, and mint a collectible NFT card for every prediction you submit.

Every time you pick an outcome for a World Cup match, Kickchain writes that choice directly to the Solana blockchain. This isn't just a record in a database — it's a cryptographic commitment tied to your wallet that no one can alter or delete. Your prediction, the odds at the exact moment you submitted it, and the rarity tier it earned are all frozen on-chain from the instant you confirm the transaction.

## What is a prediction?

A prediction is a permanent on-chain record of the outcome you chose for a specific market in a World Cup fixture. It lives in a unique Solana account derived from your wallet address and the market you predicted on — which means it's uniquely yours and fully verifiable by anyone.

When you make a prediction you're doing three things at once:

1. **Committing your pick** to the blockchain, where it can't be changed.
2. **Locking in your odds** — the decimal odds at that exact moment determine your card's rarity tier forever.
3. **Minting a collectible NFT card** to your wallet that visually represents your prediction.

## The three market types

Each World Cup fixture offers three independent markets. You can predict on any combination of them — or go for all three to complete the match set.

| Market                         | What you're predicting            | Possible outcomes          |
| ------------------------------ | --------------------------------- | -------------------------- |
| **Match Result (1X2)**         | The full-time result of the match | Home win · Draw · Away win |
| **Over/Under 2.5 Goals**       | Whether total goals exceed 2.5    | Over 2.5 · Under 2.5       |
| **Both Teams to Score (BTTS)** | Whether both sides find the net   | Yes · No                   |

<Info>
  The three markets for a single fixture form a **match set**. Predicting all three completes the set for that game. You don't need winning picks — any prediction fills a set slot.
</Info>

## One prediction per market per wallet

Kickchain enforces a strict rule: **you can only submit one prediction per market per wallet**. This limit isn't just a UI restriction — it's enforced by the on-chain program itself. Your unique on-chain prediction record is tied to your wallet and the specific market. If you try to predict the same market twice, the transaction will fail at the blockchain level.

This means every card in your collection represents a genuine, unrepeatable decision you made at a specific point in time.

## What happens after you predict

<Steps>
  <Step title="Pick your outcome">
    Choose a fixture, select a market, and tap the outcome you believe in. The current decimal odds are shown before you confirm.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Confirm the transaction">
    Approve the transaction in your Solana wallet. This writes your prediction to the blockchain and locks in the odds instantly.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Rarity is assigned">
    Based on the odds at the moment of submission, your prediction is assigned a rarity tier — Common, Rare, Epic, or Legendary — which it keeps forever.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Your NFT card is minted">
    A Metaplex Core NFT card is generated from your prediction data and minted directly to your wallet. The card's artwork, foil treatment, and metadata all reflect the rarity tier you earned.
  </Step>
</Steps>

## Prediction states

Your predictions move through a lifecycle as matches are played and results come in.

<CardGroup cols={2}>
  <Card title="Pending" icon="clock" href="/concepts/predictions">
    The market is open or the match is in progress. Your pick is locked on-chain but the result hasn't been recorded yet. Your card shows a **PENDING** or **LIVE** status chip.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Settled — Won" icon="trophy" href="/concepts/predictions">
    The match is over and your prediction was correct. Your card flips to **WON** status and the prediction contributes rarity-weighted points to your leaderboard score.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Settled — Missed" icon="x" href="/concepts/predictions">
    The match is over and the result didn't match your pick. Your card shows **MISSED** status. It remains in your collection as a permanent piece of your prediction history.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Live" icon="signal" href="/concepts/predictions">
    The match is currently being played. Your card updates to show **LIVE** status until the final result is recorded on-chain.
  </Card>
</CardGroup>

<Note>
  Even missed predictions stay in your wallet as collectible NFT cards. A missed Legendary-rarity card is still a Legendary — it just won't score leaderboard points.
</Note>

## Odds, rarity, and why timing matters

The odds displayed at the moment you submit are the odds that count. If you predict a heavy favourite early in the week when odds are short, you'll get a Common card. If you wait and an injury news story shifts the market, moving a team's odds past 7.00, that same pick could earn you a Legendary.

Markets move constantly as new information comes in — team news, weather, public betting patterns. Watching the odds before you commit can meaningfully change the rarity of the card you mint.

To understand exactly how odds translate to rarity tiers and what each tier looks like, see the [Rarity guide](/concepts/rarity).